After two consecutive months of declines, U.S. retail sales posted modest gains in March, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions and released by the National Retail Federation (NRF). However, persistent concerns over rising tariffs have kept consumer sentiment cautious, capping the extent of the rebound.
Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO, remarked, “Retail sales ticked up in March, but the increase was modest and occurred prior to the President’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement. Despite solid economic underpinnings, recent consumer behavior suggests uncertainty is taking a toll. Much of the March activity could reflect preemptive purchasing to avoid higher costs down the line.”
According to the Retail Monitor:
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Total retail sales (excluding automobiles and fuel) rose 0.6% month-over-month in March and 4.75% year-over-year (unadjusted).
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In comparison, February saw a 0.22% monthly decline and a 3.38% year-over-year increase.
Core retail sales—which exclude not only auto dealers and gas stations but also restaurants—climbed 0.4% month-over-month and 5.07% year-over-year in March, versus a 0.22% decline and 4.11% growth, respectively, in February.
Looking at the broader trend, total sales for Q1 2025 were up 4.52% year-over-year, while core retail sales grew 4.96%.
Despite strong economic fundamentals, the retail landscape remains fragile as consumers begin to divert discretionary spending toward savings, signaling a potential softening in future demand. As the tariff situation continues to evolve, retailers and policymakers alike are watching closely for signs of more lasting shifts in consumer confidence.
Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and TJM Media Pvt Ltd. is not responsible for any errors in the same.
